Weekly Recap and Forecast [13 June 2025] Oil and Gold Prices Jump as Tensions in the Middle East Rise, Investors Await Fed’s Policy Decision

Key Takeaways

• Oil prices spike as tension in the Middle East grows
• Gold breaks $3,440 as demand for safe haven spikes due to political and economic uncertainty
• Bitcoin falls on geopolitical tension after breaking the $110,000 mark again.
• Inflation numbers in the US come lower than expected
• The UK’s economy shrinks in April due to job cuts and tariff uncertainty

Oil Prices Have Reached the Highest Level Since February

Culminating a week of geopolitical escalations, oil prices jumped more than 13% Friday morning following Israel’s airstrikes against Iran. West Texas Intermediate rose 9.66% to $74.65/barrel, while Brent climbed 9.27% to $75.78/barrel, their biggest daily gains since 2020. With these spikes, oil prices reached their highest levels since early February of this year. Prices later corrected downward.

Oil markets fear potential supply disruptions if Iran retaliates against Israeli or American targets. These developments highlight previously overlooked geopolitical risks that could escalate further.

Middle East tensions could drive Brent to $75-80 range. Investors are keeping an eye on OPEC+ supply changes as further increases could prevent oil from reaching the $80 mark.

Demand On Safe Havens Spike, Gold Breaks $3,440

Geopolitical unrest in the Middle East pushed gold prices higher. Following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, gold surged to the highest level since early May of $3,423 per ounce, driven by safe‑haven demand . Soft U.S. Inflation numbers and cooling job data reinforced support to the precious metal.

Additionally, gold prices experienced volatility from U.S. jobs data. After a strong nonfarm payrolls report, gold prices fell over 1% to around $3,316 per ounce, before inflows to the precious metal increased again.

As tension in the Middle east drags on, any further escalation could drive gold back toward the $3,450 and possibly to the all-time high 3,500. Strong moves above $3,417 may clear the path for further upside movements. Any surprises in Fed commentary next week could spark swift moves. A weaker dollar would further support gold prices.

Bitcoin Hovers Near Its All-Time High

Bitcoin experienced sharp fluctuations as it broke the $110 mark and neared its all-time highs. The cryptocurrency traded in a relatively wide range between $103K–108K throughout the week. Institutional interest and the advancement in new regulations remain supportive of bitcoin. Additionally, inflows into spot bitcoin and etherum ETFs have increased.

However, geopolitical unrest pulled the crypto market lower briefly. Bitcoin fell below the $103,000 support level in early trading on Friday.

Inflation Numbers in the US Are Lower Than Expected for May

The US consumer price index rose just 0.1% month-over-month in May, bringing the year-over-year increase to +2.4%, slightly lower than expectations. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased also increased 0.1% on a monthly basis in May. The yearly wholesale inflation came at 2.6%. Numbers show no tariff-driven spikes yet, with prices showing limited impact despite new trade measures. It’s expected that these prices hikes will reflect inflation data within the next 6 months.

And with that, rate cuts are likely postponed to the September meeting.

Tariff uncertainty and fiscal risks remain a challenge for The Fed and a cause for caution. While inflation has cooled, ongoing tariffs and a widening fiscal deficit could reignite inflation later in the year.

The general consensus in the markets now is for the Fed to hold rates at 4.25–4.50% in June’s meeting, citing cautious optimism.

Key Economic Data of the week

• US Consumer Price Index rose slightly to 2.4% on a yearly basis in May, less than expectations
• UK Gross Domestic Product shrinks by 0.3% in April as tariffs weigh on the economy
• US Producer Price Index numbers come lower than expected at 0.1% on a monthly basis
• Weekly jobless claims in the US hold steady at 248K, but slightly higher than expected

Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week

Date	Event	Country
Monday, 16 June	Producer Price Index	Switzerland
Tuesday, 17 June Tuesday, 17 June	Interest Rate Decision Retail Sales	Japan USA
Wednesday, 18 June Wednesday, 18 June Wednesday, 18 June	Consumer Price Index Unemployment Claims Interest Rate Decision	UK USA USA
Thursday, 19 June Thursday, 19 June Thursday, 19 June Thursday, 19 June	Gross Domestic Product Unemployment Rate Interest Rate Decision Interest Rate Decision	New Zealand Australia Switzerland UK UK
Friday, 20 June	Retail Sales	UK

Technical Analysis and Forecast:

After breaking the $110,000 mark, bitcoin lost most of the gains it accumulated during the week of trading. Prices closed the weekly bullish gap and is now finding support around $103,000 price levels after falling to remain above $110,000 level.

The moving average MA(30) is still slopping upward confirming the uptrend mid-term. Price is likely to face resistance again at $110,000 due to its importance as a psychological level.

As long as prices remain above $104,000, the outlook for bitcoin remains positive. Watch for bullish reversal candlesticks at the $100,400 level like pinbar or bullish engulfing as these formations will indicate rejection at these levels and strong buying interest.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Chart

Resistance	$107,958 – $108,342	$110,792 – $110,847	$111, 972 – $112,155
Support	$100,327 – $101,091	$97,220 $97,983	$92,914 – $93,280

Despite the recent spikes in oil prices, strong resistance at $75 pushed prices lower towrds $72 levels. Brent gained 15% during the week before shedding some of these gains on Friday.

As long as prices remain above $67, the outlook remains bullish. A bearish correction toward $68 is possible following the recent price rejection above $75 levels.

Moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(10) are slopping upward on the daily chart indicating uptrend is developing. Watch out for dynamic support levels represented by MA(5) and MA(10).

Brent (UKOUSD) Chart

Resistance	$74.06 – $7427	$75.15 – $75.26	$77.13 – $77.28
Support	$67.98 – $68.21	$66.48 – $66.67	$65.50 – $65.61

Gold’s strong uptrend continues despite recent fluctuations above $3,000. Price faced a strong resistance at the $3,440 level. Failure to close above this resistance on the daily chart may push prices lower.

Moving averages MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) are all trending upward with a clear bullish crossover. As long as gold remains above $3,200, the uptrend remains intact.

MACD shows a slightly lower momentum in buying pressure recently. This might indicate a bearish correction before prices go up again.

Gold (XAUUSD) Chart

Resistance	$3,445 – $3,452	$3,483 – $3,491	$3,500 – $3,525
Support	$3,294 – $3,312	$3,245 – $3,252	$3,200 – $3,218

After reaching its highest level in more than three years, EURUSD faced some resistance at the 1.1600 levels. The pair is trading again at 1.1500 levels.

EURUSD is still showing strength above 1.1450-1.1500 range, which indicates bullish momentum. Price is being supported by the dynamic support levels represented by MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30).

If daily candles close above 1.1635, a strong bullish movement becomes highly likely towards the historical resistance level of 1.1800

EURUSD Chart

Resistance	1.1643 – 1.1651	1.1692 – 1.1706	1.1756 – 1.1767
Support	1.1445 – 1.1432	1.1357 – 1.1371	1.1259 – 1.1269